3.0.7 The Current World and Future Trends - Overview

Version 1.3 December 2014                                                        (Previous Version)

How we analyze our current situation and predict the future is always controversial.

In the detailed pages in Chapter 3.7 we restrict ourselves to a factual analysis, based on history and science, taking a global and long term perspective, to identify different scenarios for the future and the choices societies and individuals can make to promote one scenario over another.

·       The world has become dominated by large corporations and national governments;

·       China, India, Brazil and many other developing economies are recovering from the colonial period, increasing agricultural productivity, developing manufacturing and service industries, improving civil society, social welfare and human rights, and reducing absolute poverty.

·       However, many countries remain undeveloped with extremely poor human rights.

·       Functioning national democracies have been generally more successful in providing benefits to a wider percentage of the population: don't go to war with each other, and don't have famines. 

·       But democracies have limits: elected leaders are slow to adopt the necessary long term strategies if it risks them being unelected, and local politics overrides global necessities.  Democratic national governments can be cruel in suppressing dissent and persecuting minorities in the name of the state: totalitarian regimes can be even worse.

·       American military dominance of the world continues: they can destroy any country they wish.   American hypocrisy is more evident as rights afforded to Americans are denied to foreigners, such as ‘unlawful enemy combatants’, rendition, torture, assassinations and drone attacks.  But American economic dominance is diminishing as China, India and Europe grow.

·       There has been a general increase in inequality in the developed nations since the triumph of free market liberalism, the reduction of regulation in finance, and restrictions on workers rights.

·       As the global population increases and economic development proceeds globally there inevitably will be more pollution, more global warming, and more environmental degradation.

·       The world is running out of arable land, clean water and cheap fuel.  Food prices are likely to rise, and there will be increasing social instability.  Nation states and their elites will increase border controls and protectionism, and globally there is a risk of greater inequality.

·       Global warming will make all other environmental and population control problems worse.

·       We need to insulate strategic decisions from the parochial, short-term whims of the electorate.

·       Global non government organizations can help with research into causes and solutions, advocacy on behalf of the oppressed, education and service delivery, while maintaining openness and transparency.  We need global institutions to address global problems.

We work through the next level of detail on each of the above issues (more).  After considering this evidence, we’ve looked for a way to state our conclusions briefly, and we come to the following summary.

Is this the best way to state our conclusions in this area?  Click on feedback, or add a comment below, if you can improve the substance or the phrasing.

more                                                                                Statement 20

We value scientific input into public debate on the critical issues we face.  We look to transnational non-government organizations for balanced perspectives on social issues, economics and politics.